Brazil Votes Sunday: Lula vs. Flávio Bolsonaro Is a Dead Heat. Here’s What’s at Stake

On Sunday morning, roughly 158.7 million registered voters in Brazil will be expected to show up at the polls. Not invited. Expected. Voting is mandatory in Brazil for literate citizens between 18 and 70, and the country counts its ballots on electronic machines so fast that results usually land within hours of the polls closing.

What they will be choosing between is, in many ways, a rematch. Four years ago, Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro in one of the closest presidential races in the country’s history. This time, Jair Bolsonaro is in prison. His son is on the ballot instead. And the polls say this thing could go either way.

Here is a plain-spoken guide to what is happening, who is running, what each side is promising, and why Americans should care about an election 4,000 miles away.

The Basics: How Brazil’s Election Works

Brazil elects nearly its entire national government at once. According to the election overview compiled from Brazil’s electoral authorities, voters on Oct. 4 will choose a president and vice president, all 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies, 54 of the 81 seats in the Senate, plus governors and state legislators across the country.

The presidential race uses a two-round system. If any candidate wins more than half of the valid votes on Sunday, it is over. If not, the top two meet in a runoff on Oct. 25. Given the current polling, almost nobody expects a first-round knockout.

Polls close at 5 p.m. Brasília time, which is 4 p.m. Eastern. Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, known as the TSE, typically publishes the electronic count within a few hours.

The Candidates

There are a dozen names on the presidential ballot, but this is a two-person race.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the left-wing Workers’ Party, is the incumbent. He is 80 years old and running with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin again. He served two terms from 2003 to 2010, returned to power in 2023, and is now seeking a fourth term. According to Americas Quarterly, his strongest support comes from women, lower-income voters, Catholics, voters over 60 and the country’s northeast.

Flávio Bolsonaro, of the right-wing Liberal Party, is a 45-year-old senator from Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. He served four terms in Rio’s state assembly before winning a Senate seat in 2018 with more than 4 million votes. He announced his presidential run in December 2025 after his father was barred from running. His base is strongest in Brazil’s south and southeast, among men, and among evangelical Christians, who Americas Quarterly says make up about 27 percent of the population.

The rest of the field includes Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, Romeu Zema of the free-market NOVO party, psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury of Avante, and Renan Santos of Missão. None of them is polling above single digits.

Why Jair Bolsonaro Is Not on the Ballot

The shadow over this entire race is the man who is not in it. On Sept. 11, 2025, Brazil’s Supreme Court sentenced Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison for his role in a plot to overturn the results of the 2022 election and keep himself in power. He is also barred from running for office until 2030.

His supporters call the case political persecution. His critics call it accountability for an attack on democracy. Either way, it turned this election into a referendum on the Bolsonaro family as much as on Lula’s record. Flávio has carried his father’s movement forward, and Lula has framed the race as a chance to stop the Bolsonaros from returning to power.

What the Polls Say

Simply put: too close to call.

In the first round, Lula holds a modest lead. A Datafolha poll taken Sept. 22 and 23 had Lula at 40 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 36 percent, Al Jazeera reported. A Quaest survey taken Sept. 24 through 27 put it at 39 percent to 34 percent, with 5 percent undecided and 10 percent planning to vote blank, null or not at all, according to Colombia One.

The runoff is where things get tight. Datafolha’s head-to-head had Lula at 47 percent and Bolsonaro at 45 percent, inside the poll’s margin of error. BTG Pactual and Nexus showed 46 to 45. Quaest had them dead even at 42 percent each. In other words, Lula appears likely to finish first on Sunday, but that does not mean much if the race goes to Oct. 25.

The Issues Driving the Vote

The economy. Brazil’s growth has slowed, and the World Bank has forecast growth of about 1.6 percent. Government debt and deficits remain a major concern for investors. Lula’s government recently raised payments under Bolsa Família, the country’s signature anti-poverty program, by 15 percent, and has expanded debt relief and fuel subsidies as gas prices rose. Critics say that kind of spending adds to the fiscal hole. Supporters say it protects families who are struggling.

Crime and public security. This is Flávio Bolsonaro’s strongest issue. His security plan, called Brasil sem Medo, or “Brazil Without Fear,” would designate criminal gangs as “narcoterrorist organizations” and build five maximum-security prisons modeled on El Salvador’s system, according to Americas Quarterly. Lula’s camp points out that homicide rates have declined nationally under his government.

Corruption. Two scandals have dominated headlines: the collapse of Banco Master and a fraud scheme involving Brazil’s national social security agency, known as INSS. Both have touched figures across the political spectrum. Flávio Bolsonaro is under investigation over alleged ties to Daniel Vorcaro, the banker at the center of the Banco Master case. He denies any wrongdoing.

Work and wages. Lula has backed legislation to move Brazil from a six-day workweek to a five-day, 40-hour week without a pay cut, a proposal that is popular with workers and opposed by many business groups.

Smaller government. Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to eliminate at least 10 government ministries, cut taxes and spend roughly $174 billion over four years on highways, ports, railways, waterways and airports.

The Best Case for Each Side

It is worth hearing each camp at its strongest.

Lula’s supporters argue he has steadied a deeply divided country, protected the poor, defended Brazil’s democratic institutions after a coup attempt, and stood up to foreign pressure. When the Trump administration hit Brazil with steep tariffs in 2025, Lula’s popularity rose as he cast the fight as one over national sovereignty. “Our homeland is not for sale. Our sovereignty is nonnegotiable,” he has said.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s supporters argue Brazil needs a sharp turn: less government, lower taxes, a hard line on organized crime and warmer ties with the United States, Argentina and Israel. They say Lula, now 80, represents the past, and point to his government’s approval numbers, which Rio Times reported at 45 percent approve and 51 percent disapprove in August. Bolsonaro has been endorsed by Argentine President Javier Milei and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and President Trump has signaled his support.

Each side also has real weaknesses. Lula faces questions about his age, spending and incumbency fatigue. Flávio Bolsonaro faces the corruption investigation, the weight of his father’s conviction and a public feud with his stepmother, former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, which Americas Quarterly says cost him support among women and independents.

Why This Matters to Americans

Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America and one of the world’s biggest exporters of soybeans, beef, coffee, iron ore and oil. It is also a central player in the competition between the United States and China. China is Brazil’s top trading partner, and the next president will decide how close Brazil stays to Beijing as Washington pushes for influence across the region, including over critical minerals.

The relationship with Washington has been rocky. The 2025 tariff fight hit Brazilian exporters and American importers alike. Lula met with President Trump at the White House in May in an effort to steady things. A Bolsonaro win would likely mean a much warmer relationship with the Trump administration. A Lula win would likely mean continued friction mixed with pragmatic deal-making.

For a broader look at how global interest rates and energy prices are squeezing economies worldwide, see our coverage of the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 5.2 percent and the Iran Hormuz standoff. Brazil’s fights over online speech and courts are also part of a global debate we explored in who gets to define misinformation.

What to Watch Sunday Night

First, whether Lula clears 50 percent. It is unlikely, but a surprise first-round win would end the race. Second, the size of the gap between the top two. A wide Lula lead would put pressure on Bolsonaro to consolidate the smaller right-leaning candidates. A narrow gap points to a coin-flip runoff. Third, turnout and blank or null votes, which have been running around 10 percent or more in some polls and could decide a close runoff.

And finally, how both sides respond to the count. Brazil’s 2022 election ended in a disputed transition and, months later, a riot in the capital. The country’s institutions held, but the scars are still there. A calm, accepted result would be a win for Brazil no matter who comes out on top.